Entelligence: Begun these tablet wars have

Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion

for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide.

Apple may have validated the tablet market with the successful launch of the iPad, but the competition won't simply cede that space to Cupertino. From the Samsung Galaxy Tab and a host of other Android-based products, to HP's ethereal Slate and rumored WebOS tablet to a potential "BlackPad" from RIM, everyone wants a piece of the tablet market. The net result? We're going to see a whole host of devices starting in the fourth quarter of this year well into the first quarter of 2011, and based on what we've seen from various public leaks and vendor conversations, these products are going to be all over the place. Sadly, it appears many haven't learned the lessons why 'tweener devices failed in the past, and most of these devices will not do well in the market. Many of these efforts appear rushed to market before the holidays and few will be remembered by this time next year. It's one thing to clone a successful product but imperfect clones usually tend to work out for the worst.

Tablets are not about hardware as much as they are about software. For a device in this space to succeed one needs an optimized software experience form both a platform and application perspective. While the iPad experience is familiar, it's very much tablet-optimized. Look at applications such as Twitter for iPad or Flipboard. They'd be impossible to do on a phone and show how form and function can coexist. This issue is likely to plague pretty much every Android tablet we'll see coming to market this year. Even Google is discouraging these devices. No less than Hugo Barra, Google's director or products for mobile has said Froyo isn't optimized for tablets, and many of these devices will not have access to either Google's apps or marketplace. That's not exactly a recipe for success. Likewise, so-called slate PCs, first shown by Steve Ballmer back at CES in January have been slow to market for similar reasons. While Windows is good for many things, it's simply not a tablet- and touch- optimized experience. Taking a PC desktop OS or a smartphone OS and slapping it on a 7-inch touchscreen isn't going produce success, even if it does allow products to come to market on time for the holidays.

Developers and their apps are going to be a key, if not the key factor in who wins and who loses.

In addition to the right platform, it's also about the right applications. Releasing a device without proper application support would be a huge mistake. Evangelizing developers for new platform can be tricky, but taking an "If we build it, the y will come" approach is even worse. Developers and their apps are going to be a key, if not the key factor in who wins and who loses. Many third party devs I've spoken with are nervous about making bets on unproven platforms and in many cases are looking to double down on existing efforts instead. As I've said in the past, the plethora of mobile platforms can't survive long term as developers can't and won't support them all. Look for shakeout in the tablet space as early as next year.

All that said, I still think there's room in the market for many tablet competitors to iPad. In fact, by Q3 of next year I think we'll see a number of credible alternatives that will hopefully drive the entire market forward. Of course, by that time those devices won't be going up against today's iPad but rather iPad 2 and that should make everything just a little more interesting.